Gearing up again as markets shrugs

Another reason for the market to open downwards in the US as ‘oil prices rise’ due to ‘some attack some where’. Well, it’s hovering at a pathetic 37 dollars and if some financial journalist still has it in his or her head that there’s a correlation sufficient at this point to rattle the equities, it’s a bit of a daydream.

That’s probably the least of anyone’s concerns at this time. The markets are ‘maturing’ out from the head daze of the last few months. We’re facing up to the real mess – the giants that have failedd to hold up the pillars and foundations. So turn your attention over there, not to some  relics of yesterweek which is now at best, on the sidelines.

Ponder 2009.

Sorry for the lack of updates – with a temporary break from active trading, I’ve been diverting most of my time to my other pursuits. Trading activity is also waning, in spite of a brief  ‘rally’ that was quickly brought to a slow. So far, market indexes are still bouncing up and down, with scalpers and intraday players taking most of the pie.

Everyone’s expecting more contraction for world economies in H109, as well as currencies weakening with the dollar taking the lead. For me personally, 2008 has been an exciting year, as well as one packed full of lessons both within and without the markets.

So what might be coming up in 2009? Despite the bad news floating around, I believe we may have reach a temporary bottom at this stage. There seems to be a strong support for all indexes in the equity markets, after the major sell off in the middle and early Q4 of 2008. We may still see a sell off in the pipeline but downside risks are now at an attractive reward ratio for selected counters and instruments.

I’m already snapping up companies which are both set to ride in terms of business sense and management strategies, as well as showing a good amount of buying by others. The simple strategy remains key for me: let the price do the walking. There’s no better time than the coming months to take action, because we may see a swift recovery in the new year ahead.

All the best,

K.

A mixer

Teh Hooi Ling, one of my favourite local writer on finance and stocks, writes in an article on the Business Times weekend on the challenge of using any form of modelling to predict and forecast the markets. Among methods discussed were econometrics, physics and the likes. It’s quite a good statement and we see it in play – DOW rallied and closed positive 200 points, and STI follows suit with a strong 4.5% gain at half time, but HSI dips into the red (more probably due to profit taking and also as traders pull out of buying at the top).

Gains are tight at this point, and it’s better to clean some than have none at all.

Rollercoastie

Don’t you just love it when DOW does a stunt like this? Open spikes down and then recovers in no time to go positive? Gotta love the volatility. Better still, when it’s down, the headlines on Yahoo says ‘Stock dips as investors takes …’ and then when it’s up it changes to ‘Stocks rise as investor shrugs off…’

Ok, tell me something we can’t see with our eyes from the charts right? Guess not

Look at Golden Agriculture

The technicals for this STI listed commodity company looks interesting. There is a breach out of the down trend channel, and may signify a good long – mid term buy/long. I would wait to enter between 0.185 – 0.195. Given the volatility of the markets and the overall sentiment, I would put my stops at 0.165 – 0.17. I got a feeling this might run up very soon, but of course, there’s a 99% probability I’ll be wrong.